No deal, war to the finish: Trump warns of chaos as Iran claims "humiliation" of US forces – F-18s downed, bases shocked, USS Lincoln targeted

Despite US optimism and ongoing efforts to organize a high-level meeting with Iran—potentially in Pakistan or Turkey—the prospect of actual talks remains a distant reality. Iran maintains that it is not negotiating directly with the Americans, though it admits to an exchange of messages via mediators. Analysts suggest these communications only highlight how far apart the two sides remain from any meaningful agreement.

Meanwhile, Trump claims that the Iranian leadership "desperately wants a deal" but is too afraid of its own people to say so publicly. Simultaneously, the American President has publicly threatened to unleash "Hell" the moment his ultimatum for negotiations expires.

On the ground, the Iranians continue to project a narrative of humiliation against the "world’s strongest military," claiming to have downed another American F-18 while threatening "crushing blows" against the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln. Furthermore, the Iranian military, utilizing a new missile strategy alongside Hezbollah, is reportedly exposing gaps in Israel's "invincible" air defense systems on a daily basis.

For its part, Israel asserts it is dealing significant blows to Tehran and Beirut through fresh airstrikes, while its military continues the ground invasion of southern Lebanon. In this chaotic environment, it appears a deal is unlikely, and the region is drifting toward a war to the finish.

Araghchi (Iranian Foreign Minister): No dialogue with the US

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that there is no direct dialogue or formal negotiation between Iran and the US. He clarified that the exchange of messages through friendly nations to express positions or issue warnings does not constitute a dialogue.

Wall Street Journal: Araghchi and Ghalibaf temporarily off target lists

A report by the Wall Street Journal claims that the US and Israel have temporarily removed Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi from their assassination lists. This reprieve, reportedly lasting four to five days, is intended to gauge the possibility of high-level negotiations to end regional hostilities.

Trump: They want a deal but are afraid

President Donald Trump claimed that Iranian leaders want a deal "so badly" but fear they will be "killed by their own people" or by the US if they admit it. Trump called Iran's nuclear potential a "cancer" and stated that while energy prices have risen, the alternative would have been "much worse."

Wall Street Journal: Trump wants to end the war

According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump wants to conclude the conflict with Iran because it is a distraction from other priorities. He reportedly told associates he hopes to finish the war before his mid-May meeting with the President of China, shifting his focus back to the midterm elections and domestic border policies.

CNN: Iran reinforces Kharg Island

As negotiations stall, the US warns that Trump is ready to unleash "Hell" if Iran does not yield. At least 2,000 Marines have been ordered to deploy near the Iranian border. In response, CNN reports that Iran has moved military forces and air defense systems to Kharg Island to repel a potential American seizure of the strategic oil hub.

Alex Ward (American Journalist): Ground invasion may begin soon

Wall Street Journal journalist Alex Ward suggested on X that a ground operation in Iran is being planned and could start shortly. He noted that key Republicans in Congress, including the chairs of the Armed Services Committees, are strongly hinting at this development following the deployment orders for the 82nd Airborne Division.

Axis of Resistance counter-attack scenario at Bab el-Mandab

The Ansarullah (Houthi) movement in Yemen is reportedly ready to seize control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait to "punish the enemy," according to the Tasnim news agency. Military sources claim that if the US moves against Iran's islands, the Resistance Forces will open new, surprising fronts in the Red Sea, doubling the cost of the war for the coalition.

New York Times: Iran caused serious damage to US bases

The New York Times, citing US officials, reported that Iranian strikes have caused serious damage to American bases in the Middle East. These attacks targeted reconnaissance and command facilities, forcing US troops to shift toward remote operations to minimize personnel losses.

Washington Post: Iranian missiles penetrate Israel's defense

The Washington Post reports that confidence in Israel's modern air defense systems has been shaken as Iranian missiles successfully penetrate the shield. Israeli officials are concerned about weapon stockpiles being overwhelmed, noting that the failure to intercept missiles near Dimona represents a significant turning point in the conflict.

Revolutionary Guards: We downed an American F-18

The IRGC claims to have shot down a US F-18 fighter jet over the port of Chabahar on March 25, 2026. They stated the aircraft was hit by a "completely domestic" air defense system and crashed into the Indian Ocean. While CENTCOM has dismissed these claims as false, the IRGC insists this is their fourth successful downing of a strategic enemy aircraft.

The blow to US prestige with the F-35

On March 19, a US F-35 Lightning II reportedly made an emergency landing after being struck by an Iranian surface-to-air missile. This is a historic development, as no state had previously succeeded in hitting this specific stealth fighter in a combat environment.

US losses — 22 aircraft lost

Since the conflict began, the US and Israel have reportedly lost over 32 aircraft. The US share includes 12 MQ-9 Reaper drones, three F-15 Strike Eagles in Kuwait, one F-18, and several KC-135 tankers. Each drone loss carries a price tag of up to $56.5 million.

Iran: New strike on USS Abraham Lincoln — "We are watching"

The Iranian military reported targeting the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group with cruise missiles. Navy Commander Shahram Irani emphasized that the military maintains constant surveillance and will deliver "catalytic strikes" once the carrier enters the effective range of Iranian missile systems.

Al Jazeera: New Iranian missiles challenge Israeli defenses

An Al Jazeera analysis highlights that Iran’s new missile strategy uses unconventional patterns to paralyze defenses. Specifically, "saturation fire" and missiles that split into multiple warheads mid-air are being used to deceive the Iron Dome and David’s Sling, targeting critical sites from Dimona to Tel Aviv.

Barrage of Iranian missile strikes on Israel — 7 injured

Iran launched a massive missile barrage targeting central Israel, Jerusalem, and the West Bank. Israeli reports mention 9 injuries, including five people hit by a cluster bomb in the city of Kafr Qasim.

Footage from one of the impact sites in "Israel" https://t.co/X6cnlNzxSF pic.twitter.com/OrqEsR4QTw

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) March 26, 2026

Hezbollah counter-attacks: Missiles in Tel Aviv, 23rd Merkava tank destroyed

Despite the invasion of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is striking back. The group claimed to have hit the Israeli Ministry of War in Tel Aviv and destroyed 23 Merkava tanks within 24 hours. Since the war's start, Hezbollah has reportedly fired over 3,500 projectiles toward Israel.

Financial Times: Russia sends drones and aid to Iran

Western intelligence reports suggest Moscow is completing a shipment of drones, medical supplies, and food to Iran. Secret talks reportedly began shortly after the coalition strikes on Tehran. The Kremlin, however, has denied these claims.

New intervention from China: Stop the war, proceed to talks

China has issued a fresh call for all parties to halt military actions and begin sincere peace talks. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian emphasized that the "urgent priority" is to seize the opportunity for peace and end the military escalation.

Hell in the Gulf

Iranian attacks against Gulf states continue, with the UAE and Kuwait intercepting drones and missiles. Two people were reportedly killed by missile debris in Abu Dhabi. Most regional powers now view the Iranian regime as a long-term threat, though Oman has expressed dissatisfaction with the US-led strikes.

Israel: Extensive airstrikes in Tehran

The Israeli Air Force completed a wave of "extensive" airstrikes targeting military production industries in Tehran and other Iranian regions. Meanwhile, the IDF confirmed that an Israeli soldier was killed in a skirmish with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Israeli official: We eliminated the IRGC Navy Commander

An Israeli official claimed that Alireza Tangsiri, the IRGC Navy Commander responsible for the Strait of Hormuz, was killed in an attack in Bandar Abbas. There has been no confirmation from Tehran or the IDF regarding this claim.

Draft law for "tolls" in the Strait of Hormuz

The Iranian Parliament is working on a law to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The law would legally codify Iran's maritime sovereignty over the hub, treating it as a "passage" where Iran provides security that must be paid for.

Lloyd's List: Tolls in Yuan

Lloyd’s List reports that tankers are already passing through a "de facto toll station" run by the IRGC. Since March 13, at least 26 ships have followed pre-approved routes, with some payments reportedly settled in Chinese Yuan.

Tasnim (Iran): Fewer than 5 ships pass through Hormuz

Real-time data indicates that fewer than 5 ships per day are receiving permission from Tehran to traverse the Strait of Hormuz. This represents a radical shift in global trade flows, with Iran granting passage primarily to "friendly countries" such as China, India, and Pakistan.

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